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S&P Global — 1 July 2024

Daily Update: July 1, 2024

China’s Tanpuhui Scheme, Decarbonizing Consumer Behavior

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By Nathan Hunt


Start every business day with our analyses of the most pressing developments affecting markets today, alongside a curated selection of our latest and most important insights on the global economy

Carbon taxes are deeply unpopular with the industries most in need of decarbonization. They pass on costs incurred to consumers with a remarkable degree of transparency about the reasons for higher prices. This quickly renders carbon taxes equally unpopular with consumers. However, any large-scale decarbonization of the global economy will require changes in consumer behavior. Companies continue to engage in carbon-intensive activities because consumers demand the resulting goods and services. But if the stick won’t change behavior, why not try the carrot? That has been the approach of China’s Tanpuhui carbon scheme — a consumer-level carbon emissions reduction program that incentivizes green behaviors.

The roots of the current scheme can be traced back to 2013, when former Chinese climate envoy Xie Zhenhua first proposed incentivizing individuals to reduce emissions in daily life. In 2016 a number of provincial governments introduced incentive-style efforts, and Ant Group, an affiliate of Chinese technology conglomerate Alibaba Group, launched “Ant Forest,” which rewarded consumers for certain behaviors by planting trees on their behalf. Based on the success of these pilot programs, in 2021 China committed to building Tanpuhui programs across the country. Tanpuhui can be loosely translated as "carbon inclusion." In June, 15 Chinese government bodies released a joint action plan for a national carbon footprint management system that placed Tanpuhui incentivized schemes at the center of Chinese decarbonization efforts. 

Unlike carbon taxes, Tanpuhui schemes assess the price consumers are willing to be paid to change their carbon-intensive behaviors. Under different regional schemes, consumers can be rewarded for purchasing energy-efficient appliances, installing solar panels for households, recycling waste, taking public transport and driving electric vehicles. Consumers are typically paid in points that can be redeemed for perks and discounts on government services or products. Broadly, Tanpuhui-qualified behaviors can be divided into four categories: low-carbon transportation, purchasing low-carbon goods, water recycling and low-carbon lifestyle changes.

As well as being considerably more popular than carbon taxes, Tanpuhui schemes also establish a price for carbon — the price necessary to forgo carbon-intensive behaviors. The fact that consumers receive money to change their behavior rather than paying money not to change their behavior doesn’t change the underlying pricing mechanism. This means that Tanpuhui schemes could be integrated with broader carbon markets. Chinese authorities have already established that emissions reductions achieved through Tanpuhui schemes cannot be “double counted” under the China Certified Emission Reduction program, Verra's Verified Carbon Standard, Gold Standard or the UN's Clean Development Mechanism.

"We are still carving the path to connect carbon markets for producers and the carbon markets for consumers. We are still exploring how to optimize the values of the carbon assets linked to individual carbon accounts," Xie recently wrote.

Today is Monday, July 1, 2024, and here is today’s essential intelligence.

Listen: Whack-A-Mole: Car Makers Look To Supply Chain CO2 Hotspots As EV Emissions Fall

Operating an internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle traditionally accounts for about 75% of a car’s full lifecycle emissions. That percentage breakdown changes with the adoption of battery electric vehicles (BEV), which have zero tailpipe emissions. S&P Global Mobility expert Xi Wang joins EnergyCents hosts Hill Vaden and Sam Humphreys to discuss the lifecycle emissions of automobile supply chains and flag how automakers plan to manage the CO2 footprint of their operations as they shift to electric vehicles.

—Listen and subscribe to the podcast from S&P Global Commodity Insights

Economic Research: Q3 2024 Global Economic Update: The Policy Rate Descent Begins

Global macro developments continue to pan out in line with our baseline view. GDP growth has moderated in most economies (the US remains an outlier) and recessions have been avoided. Demand pressures have come down, bringing inflation back toward target. Services demand and employment remain robust, moderating the speed of decline and bolstering the probability of a soft landing.

—Read the article from S&P Global Ratings

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A new UK government has several options to cut claims costs if it is determined to crack down on motor insurance prices, industry experts said. The Labour Party, which polls suggest is most likely to emerge victorious in the UK's July 4 general election, said in its manifesto that it would support the country's drivers by "tackling the soaring cost of car insurance." Labour member of Parliament Louise Haigh, the shadow transport minister, told UK newspaper The Mirror that the Financial Conduct Authority and the Competition and Markets Authority should investigate the industry.

—Read the article from S&P Global Market Intelligence

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The arbitrage for LNG cargoes moving from the Atlantic basin to the Far East has opened up as market participants brace for the upcoming summer season, although rising freight rates pose a risk to the arbitrage opportunity. The spread between Europe and Asia's spot LNG prices in June has remained wide, which means that more US cargoes should head to the Far East, where the netbacks from the US Gulf Coast are stronger, further easing Asian supply.

—Read the article from S&P Global Commodity Insights

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Despite high stocks and subdued demand, the European gas market remains jittery and mindful of the potential for unexpected supply shocks through the third quarter of 2024. Prices remain relatively high, reflecting market nerves, and have risen by 50% since a recent low in February. Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed the TTF month-ahead price at Eur34.03/MWh ($36.39/MWh) on June 26 compared with just Eur22.95/MWh on Feb. 22.

—Read the article from S&P Global Commodity Insights

US Auto Sales Advance Again In June

S&P Global Mobility projects new light vehicle sales volume in June 2024 to reach 1.40 million units, up approximately 1% year over year. This volume would translate to an estimated sales pace of 16.2 million units (seasonally adjusted annual rate: SAAR), which would be the highest monthly mark for this metric since May 2021.

—Read the article from S&P Global Mobility

40th Annual APPEC Conference (September 9 – 12)

Building on the success of previous years, APPEC 2024 promises to deliver another exceptional experience filled with thought-provoking discussions, expert insights and unparalleled networking opportunities. Join us, as we gather to explore the latest trends, challenges, and innovations shaping the global energy landscape.

—Register for the conference from S&P Global Commodity Insights


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